Independence 211

Message

Dear Reader:

This is the time when people are busy drawing up lists of friends and sending them cards and presents. For myself and my colleagues, we have so many friends it has taken us a lot of time to prepare our New Year present for you all. By the time it's ready, the New Year will already be in the past. 

All the same, we hope you are satisfied with our work, and that our 'horrendous crime' of not having reciprocated your good will and friendship will be forgiven. 

Mysoong! (Wishing You Progress & Prosperity)

S.H.A.N.

SHAN Diary 2003

The World

15 March
Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao take over in China. 

19 March
SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) makes.

20 March
Gulf War II begins. 

15 October
China launches astronaut into space. 

International Relations

30 January - 8 February
Amnesty makes first visit to Burma. 

30 September
Kofi Annan calls for democracy by 2006. 

7 October
Asean summit in Bali decides to give PM Khin Nyunt "time to sort things out." 

1 December
UN resolution calls

• For full and independent inquiry of the Dipeyin incident;

• For cooperation with UN investigation into charges of rape;

• For end to conflict with remaining ethnic groups

• For respect for the 1990 elections results

• For inclusion of ethnic groups in talks, among others. (text)

Thai-Burma Relations

15 July
Thailand proposes first roadmap for Burma. 

15 December
Thailand holds international forum, dubbed "Bangkok Process" for Burma. 

Politics

30 May
Aung San Suu Kyi is taken into custody after a violent massacre. 

25 August
Gen Khin Nyunt become prime minister. 

30 August
Gen Khin Nyunt spells out "second" roadmap to democracy. 

5 September
Non-Burmans offer "third" roadmap 'to improve and implement' that which has been announced by others earlier. 

22 November
Rangoon's special envoy Col San Pwint meets Gen Bo Mya in Maesod. 

Shans

6-12 April
Seminar on Tai culture in 4 river valleys held in Yunnan's Luxi (Mongkhawn). 

1 July
Seven ceasefire groups call for tripartite dialogue: KIO, KNU, KNPLF, PSLA, NMSP, SSPC and SSPLO. 

13-15 October
Panghsang Declaration calls for revision of National Convention rules. 

Economy / Business

10 February
Bank crisis begins after Central Bank assures private banks are operating "as usual". 

24 April
Secretary-2 Lt-Gen Soe Win announces scrapping of its 40-year-old paddy procurement policy. 

21 June
Burma and Thailand sign pact on migrant workers. 

28 July
President Bush signs economic sanctions.

12 November
Pagan declaration on '4 nations, 1 economy' signed by Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand. 

15 November
Discovery of coalmines in Lashio, Hsenwi, Mongyai, Tangyan, Hsipaw and Kehsi announced. (MIC)

23 November
India, Burma and Thailand agree to build Moreh-Maesod road, 1,360 km, beginning next year. (AFP)

Human Rights

22 September
A 6.7 Richter scale earthquake in Taungdwingyi, 220 miles north of Rangoon. At least 9 dead and several wounded. No relief measures from authorities. (DVB)

12 November
Over 70 people are hospitalized after Indian police crush a demonstration by Burma asylum seekers in New Delhi. (Irrawaddy)

20 November
Traders in Southeastern Region are ordered to buy rice at K 1,500 per basket. 

28 November
Burma sentences Zaw Thet Htwe, 37, editor of First Eleven sports magazine, to death. 

9 December
Unocal stands trial in Los Angeles to face lawsuits filed by 15 villagers from Burma. (AFP)

Environment

13 March
PM Thaksin publicly backs damming of Salween. (The Nation)

2 November
Shweli Hydropower Project launched in Namkham. (New Light of Myanmar)

1 December
Burma has begun building a 198-foot tall viewing tower in the ancient temple city of Pagan amidst international outcry that it is a "cultural crime". 

16 December
83 organizations protest against China's planned construction of 13 dams on the Nu/Salween River, without consulting the two downstream countries. 

Drugs

13 January
Asean and China meeting in Chiangmai pledge to free the region from drugs by 2015. (Bangkok Post)

1 February
Thailand launches all out war on drugs. 

26 June
Junta's burning of drugs event boycotted by EU diplomats. 

20 July
Australia has confirmed all 125 kg of heroin seized on 19 April on North Korean freighter Pong Su have been traced to Burma. (Bangkok Post)

24 July
Thailand, Burma, Laos, Cambodia, China and India agree to restrict precursors chemicals. (Bangkok Post)

7 September
Gen Khin Nyunt says Burma was chosen as a UN drug commission member in April 2003 ECOSOC meeting. It will serve as a member from 2004-2007. 

25 September
Six Mekong sub-region nations adopt Hanoi Resolution under which they have agreed to focus on curbing the spread of Amphetamine Type Stimulants. 

5 December
Rangoon issues money laundering control rules following US 19/11 statement. (XNA)

War

21 May
At least 4 people are killed in 4 separate blasts in Tachilek. No group has accepted responsibility. 

July
13th Army of Sichuan takes over border security along Burma border. It is equipped with sophisticated weaponry. (AT)

21 July
21 July has been designated by Rangoon as the day for People's War against foreign aggression. (DVB)

5 August
Burma Army launches monsoon campaign against Karen rebels' 7th Brigade. (NMG)

16 October
Coastal Region Command facing Thailand is replacing China-made weapons with those from India. (DVB)

20 October
Burma Army calls off 2½ month long Karen offensive. Casualties: 104 KIA, 213 WIA and 7 MIA. (S.H.A.N.)

27 October
Darryl Johnson, US ambassador to Thailand, dismisses military intervention plans in Burma. (Irrawaddy)

10 November
Rangoon-Karen ceasefire announced. But the fighting goes on.

13 November
Pyongyang is helping Burma to construct a nuclear reactor near Natmawk.

Bereavement

17 January
Sao Hearn Hkam, the Mahadevi of Yawnghwe and former president, Shan State War Council, 87, in Vancouver. 
Photo

7 March
Nai Shwe Kyin, Mon leader, 91, in Moulmein. 

2 June
Shwe Ser, founding member of KNU, 78, at the Thai-Burma border. 

9 July
Maw Thiri a.k.a Chandra Prakash Prabhakar, 70, whose name is synonymous with Burmese literature in India, in New Delhi. 

11 October
Swedish foreign minister, Anna Lindh, a known supporter of Burma's democracy movement. 

21 November
Sai Htun, Vice President of exile Shan Democratic Union, 63. 

29 November
Highly respected Thamanya abbot of Pa-an, 73. 

7 December
Tet Toe, known for his dictionaries, 91. 

Quotes

Today in Burma, if you have more money than your opponent, you will win the case. 99 out of 100 people know it. 
A high court lawyer in Rangoon, 28 February 2003, DVB

Insisting on curing and looking after the victims without removing the perpetrators could be like putting the cart in front of the horse.
Appeal of Shan-Karen on upcoming EU common position, 17 March

Confidence building is like testing the water before swimming. But if you spend too much time testing the water, it might be interpreted that you don't want to swim. 
Aung San Suu Kyi

If a people was denied the right to self determination, it is colonialism.
Eric Bruce Johnson, One-eyed Birds View, 29 April 2003

We are not a brutal people. We have loving kindness for everybody. We are not a heartless people. 
FM Win Aung, at Asean Regional Forum, 19 June 2003

Burma has no problem to find, beat and imprison political opponents, so claims ring hollow that drug traffickers are difficult to find. 
Bangkok Post, 15 July 2002

Blaming Burma's present troubles to colonial legacy has been too much overworked, says a Burmese scholar, Dr. U Myint, because Burma is not the only country in Asia to have been colonized by the British. 
Irrawaddy, 14 October 2003

Only a roadmap that arises from the Tripartite Dialogue can be genuine. 
Khun Toon Oo, 16 October 2003, DVB

No political transition in the world worked without the basic political freedoms. 
Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, 12 November 2003

How can we build a modern country when our slogan is Oppose, Oppose, Oppose and Crush?
A Burmese tour guide, Cox News Service, 17 November 2003 

Shan State in 2003

Over the world, the big headlines were the US-UK attack and subsequent occupation of Iraq and SARS. In Burma, headlines were made by the bank crisis, the Dipeyin massacre followed by the re-arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi, President Bush's signing of new Burma sanctions, Gen Khin Nyunt's appointment as prime minister and his roadmap initiative which, according to some analysts, has become the only game in town to play. 
What happened in Shan State in 2003 should be seen against this backdrop _ Editor

The People

Are the generals ready for democracy? 
Reports on cybercafes springing up, Amnesty International's historic visit on 28 January and Lt-Gen Soe Win announcing a new paddy policy that freed farmers from selling quotas of paddy to the government at unbelievably low prices might be indicators in the affirmative. 

But these positive developments were overwhelmingly drowned out by continued negative reports from each and every corner of Burma that various news agencies, unrecognized by the generals, could reach. 

Extra-judicial killings continued: on 29 March, two monks at Htam Loikong, Kunhing township, were shot to death by Captain Than Naing Oo from Infantry Battalion 246. Another shooting of 11 farmers that resulted in 4 killed and 4 injured, took place at Nawngpan in the same township on 29 April. 

Sources confirmed, despite junta accusations, that it was not the Shan resistance but the Army that had committed the crimes. IB 246, together with Light Infantry Battalion 524, were charged by Shan State Army "North", a ceasefire group, in 2000 of massacring 85 villagers in 2 consecutive incidents. 

• Since November 2002, the ICRC has been making Laikha, 79 miles northeast of Taunggyi, a sort of Mecca, vowing to "become a part of the landscape", in the declared belief that repeated visits would create "a preventive protection effect". Local Burmese commanders at once reacted to the ICRC's inquiries about the people's life under military rule in the only way they knew. The local populace was warned of dire consequences for those who gave away the army. 

Their threats were not idle. Two village committee members who had testified to the Red Cross on 30 January were later flogged until both of them were covered with blood from head to toe. Another 3 villagers who were interviewed by whom they thought were Red Cross officials on 1 June were taken away from their homes two days later by "Shan rebels who spoke fluent Burmese but pidgin Shan" never to be seen again. Their mysterious disappearance generated so much terror among the locals, many of them decided to leave their homes and flee to Thailand. 

Apparently irked by negative results, the ICRC's later visits concentrated more on health and sanitation issues and less on the human rights situation. The visitors also filed complaints with authorities about the unusual presence of Burmese patrols during their tours. By the end of the year, it was also expanding its field operation to Namzarng, Kunhing and Mongnai townships. 

• Early in the year, farmers as usual were required to sell paddy at fixed prices (350 kyat per basket). What was unusual was that non-farmers were also included in the enumeration. Those who did not grow paddy were obliged to pay cash, calculated at market price, 2,500-3,000 kyat per basket. 

However, after the new policy came into force later in the year, it was discovered by the farmers that rice traders who had been assigned by the government to purchase paddy from them could sell only at 1,500 kyat per basket to the government, a situation totally unexpected by all. ("I knew there was a catch somewhere in [the policy]," grumbled a Shan trader from Kengtung.)

This resulted in the traders stalling for time until the cash-strapped farmers would inevitably be forced to reduce their prices. 

• According to a social worker in Chiangmai's Fang district, the influx of refugees there that reached its peak to 15,557 in 1999 dropped to 8,974 in 2001 but since 2002 had been steadily climbing up again to 13,334 last year, which ties in with what Amnesty concluded on 19 December that there was "a slide in human rights" since their first visit. 

Recognized IDPs and Refugees along Thai-Burma border

9 July 31 December

Environment

The Salween Dam

Following an agreement signed between Thailand's MDX Group and Burma's Ministry of Electric Power on 20 December 2002, work on the Tasarng Dam on the Salween was expected to begin earnestly. 

However, most of the news published during the year spoke very little about Tasarng, but only about Weigyi, between Karen State and the kingdom downstream instead, although nothing concrete was made known by the end of the year. 

Upstream, a 22-men team of Thai experts reportedly arrived in Tasarng on 21 January. Salween Watch, a group formed in 1998, said for a month the group was engaged in digging 4 tunnels, 2 on each side of the river at the dam site, and drilling perpendicular holes that reached the water level. During the period, 30 of the hired workers from lowland Burma were said to have perished due to the cave-ins and other causes. 

Apart from this, the experts were seen taking measurements of the water depth each morning and evening. Meanwhile a new road, 25 ft wide, 12-15 km long, was being built by Thai Sawad, a Burma-based Thai company. 

Since then, nothing much appeared to be happening, except for the ongoing road-repair at the site of what is to become, upon its completion, the biggest megadam in Southeast Asia. BP-1, the border checkpoint, where most of the construction materials from Thailand should go through when the project becomes full swing, is still closed, although a few trucks have been allowed to cross since 12 December. It seems the parties concerned have decided that transparency is the last thing they want at least for the time being. 

The Mekong reef blasting

Activists both from Burma and Thailand lodged a joint petition to China on 12 December 2002 to halt the second batch of blasting of 16 rapids located between Burma's Shan State and Laos during the period 15 December 2002-15 March 2003. It had already caught the local people unaware by its blasting of two rapids earlier. To no one's surprise, the request simply fell on deaf ears and the blasting went on. 

One disastrous result was the drowning of 7 Lahu villagers from Palio-Kenglarb (in Tachilek township) whose boat was overturned on 31 December 2002 by the wake of a convoy of at least 5 large Chinese cargo boats traveling downstream. The Mekong Navigation Improvement Project, led by China, aims to make the region's longest river navigable for vessels of 500 tons. 

For some reason, the plan to blast the remaining batch of reefs, December 2003-March 2004, was not implemented and a new EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) is being conducted, according to Chiangmai-based Southeast Asia Rivers Network (SEARIN). This may prove a breather for the local people but certainly not a victory. 

The Kengtawng hydropower project

Undaunted by the failure of Chinese engineers to build a dam at Kengtawng's 795 ft high falls, the Ministry of Electric Power again engaged Japan to send a team of experts to visit the location and figure out a way to harness the raging waters. 

By 5 December 2002, Col Tint Lwin, the area commander was able to inform the local populace that within 2 years the falls would be able to supply electricity not only to Kengtawng but also the whole southern Shan State. 

By May, S.H.A.N. was told by a former headman from Kengtawng that the only thing remaining was to wait for the arrival of generators from Japan. 

Rangoon's optimism was also confirmed by The New Light of Myanmar, 1 August, that contained a map showing the planned power supply system upon completion. 

The security cordon had also been tight, by all accounts, all of which seemed to indicate that the activities on the Salween dam site might well turn out to be a mere diversion.

War

Throughout the year, the Shan State Army of Col Yawdserk has unusually been "behaving itself." 

At the beginning of the year, on 11 January, it announced a unilateral ceasefire along the border: that it would not fight unless attacked. Towards the end of the year, another declaration was issued that it was ready to talk to Rangoon if the latter wished so, without conditions. 

This was a far cry from the three previous consecutive years, 2000-2002, when clashes between the Shan and junta armies along the unsettled boundary had almost brought the two countries to the brink of open war. 

To be sure, random clashes still continued. The Burma Army, still smarting from a pyrrhic victory in 2002, when it had suffered an estimated 800-1,000 casualties, spent the whole year rebuilding its manpower, roads and fortifications. The SSA even launched a military campaign which is still ongoing in Tachilek and Monghpyak townships, opposite Chiangrai, in November. But nothing hit the headlines except Thai efforts to "establish order" along the border and mediate between the two sides. 

One result was the removal of one Shan base across Chiangmai's Chiangdao district in October and, the other, the downgrading of drug-related liaison between the SSA and the Thai Army. 

The Thai mediation, on the other hand, did not appear to move Rangoon much, when it came to opening talks with the SSA. On 10 March, Maj Gen Kyaw Win, Gen Khin Nyunt's deputy, reconfirmed that the SSA had no choice but to surrender. However, some Thai officials are counting on Rangoon to reconsider its stance, after agreement is hopefully reached between it and the Karen National Union, the SSA's ally, in January.

The year also witnessed mysterious explosions in Tachilek, on 21 May, coincidently the 45th anniversary of the Shan resistance, which killed 4 and damaged the statue of King Bayintnaung, who conquered the Shans in 1555 and Ayuddhya in 1569. Suspicion naturally fell on the SSA, whose leader firmly denied involvement. Other observers, reportedly including Wei Hsuehkang, meanwhile believed it must be the handiwork of the Burmese military itself. In any case, bilateral relations, for the first time, were unaffected by the incident. 

It is therefore difficult to say what the prospects are with regards to the military situation in Shan State. However, one thing may be clear. No future military operations in eastern Shan State will be launched either by the Shans or Rangoon without taking into careful consideration the presence of China's 13th Army, reportedly a Level A field unit, meaning equipped with sophisticated weaponry, that took over border security from the paramilitary police Wujin in July. 

Politics

Admirers do not hesitate to assert that among today's Shan leaders, Khun Toon Oo, with no army to command and no international standing worth talking about, outshines others for his courage. 

On 6 January, he was informed by the military authorities that the 8-party United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), formed on 31 July 2002 in order to "prepare for the eventual tripartite dialogue" and which had appointed him as spokesperson, would not be recognized. That however has not stopped him from continuing his activities on its behalf. 

On 7 February, Sao Nood a.k.a Sai Nyunt Lwin, 52, Acting General Secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, was arrested. The arrest took place while Amnesty International was on its historic first visit in Burma. Undaunted, Khun Toon Oo held a meeting with the Shan State Army "North" and Shan State National Army, member groups of the Joint Action Committee founded by him, and sent a petition to the military council. Three months later, on 20 May, Sai Nood was freed. 

He was reportedly "incensed", when generals Hsoten and Loimao, had an audience with PM Khin Nyunt on 22 November, without meeting him first. The matter however was quiclkly resolved and by early January, the JAC was able to report that its members would continue to work together "sharing heat and cold alike." 

With Aung San Suu Kyi and her top leaders still incarcerated, Khun Toon Oo has accidentally become a figure much sought out both by foreign dignitaries on visits and the media. What he says has also been given more attention now than ever. Throughout the year, he has staunchly stood by the UNA's principle: dialogue must come before the "National Convention". 

Chao Tzang Yawnghwe, one of his admirers, commented that his stand "is good, firm, principled and conciliatory, avoids threats and is not threatening to the generals who are already frightened and desperate." 

For the Shan exiles, it was another busy year. Among the groups, rights campaigning trips by Shan Women's Action Network (SWAN) and political lobbying trips by the Shan Democratic Union, have been the most prominent. The SDU, together with the Karen National Union, during their visits to Greece, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands, had, likening Burma to a house under siege and its military as the perpetrators, emphasized that "insisting to cure and look after the victims without removing the perpetrators would be like putting the cart in front of the horse". 

All in all, they were satisfied with the outcome of their trips, according to Wansai, SDU General Secretary, because of assurance given by EU member countries of their determination to continue pushing for Tripartite Dialogue. (One of EU's concern was that the non-Burmans would opt for secession as the way out. To this the representatives had assured that there would not be any boat rocking.) 

The year also saw the Shan State Army of Col Yawdserk, long regarded as a drawback to National Reconciliation because of its Total Independence stand, making a conciliatory move by declaring on 12 August a "popular resolution" to support an 8-state union structure. 

The upshot, according to Chao Tzang Yawnghwe, Shan State's foremost scholar and activist, was open praise by an official working with the UN, who had met Shan groups both in Burma and abroad, that Shans were the most united. "We have different groups like different parts of a vehicle, but they work well together," he told a Shan Exchange meeting on 9 July. "What he said is in line with 'Unity in Diversity' and 'Common Goal, Diverse action' principles that we have been espousing. Of course, it is not dictatorial unity (one blood, one voice, one command) as some uninformed people are taught to believe, but a democratic unity". 

How strong this "democratic unity" will prove in the face of Rangoon's roadmap initiative and the National Convention to be held in 2004 is anybody's guess. But few would deny it will be fatal just to take it for granted. 

Drugs

Outwardly, drug control in Burma was a promising prospect. 

• Plants from the borders were being dismantled. 

• Flows of speed and heroin into Thailand were slowed down by unprecedented crackdowns in the kingdom that had forced hundreds of "drug refugees" into Burma. Nakawngmu, known as a drug distribution center, across Chiangmai alone, boasted 104 new homes for ethnic Chinese bosses from Thailand in March. 

• Even the Wa were beginning to act like another drug enforcement agency when they raided a refinery in Mongjawd, opposite Chiangmai, on 30 March, that reportedly netted 208 kg of opium, 67.7 kg of morphine and 13.5 kg of heroin, according to the Myanmar Information Committee. 
  The Wa have also blamed Wei Hsaitang, a former celebrated commander who is now in jail, for all the stigma that they had "unfairly" received. As an act of exorcism, Mongyawn, known as the southern drug capital, has in November been renamed Yongpang "prosperity". 
  Thailand is "happy" with its Doi Tung II alternative development project, initiated by the late Princess Mother, in Nayao, now known as Yawngkha, opposite Chiangrai, that was launched in 2001. MR Disnadda Diskul, the project's director, is already talking about Doi Tung III in Tangyan, a township in northern Shan State. 

• The UN Drug Control Program, renamed UN Office on Drugs and Crime, is also satisfied. Opium output in northern Shan State had been reduced to 50% in the 2002-2003 season. 

• Already it is forecasting impending famine brought by the forced termination and calling for international assistance, regardless of the existing explosive political situation in Burma. 
  However, critics have pointed out that the beauty of its pro-engagement arguments were only skin deep.

• Plants dismantled by drug operators from the border were being moved deeper inside, some to the Upper Triangle between China's Yunnan and Laos and many just a safe distance from the Thai drug watchers. 

• Drug entrepreneurs also pointed out that Thailand's crackdown had merely served to force them to find alternative access routes. Seizures of 9.6 million pills in Tak's Maesod, opposite Karen State, in October and increased arrests in Thailand's northeast and south were unmistakable pointers, they said. 

• Moreover, drugs have also been diverted to India and China, called by Guilhem Fabre, a French analyst-researcher, as "a blackhole" in the drug equation. 

• It was discovered that more heroin-speed plants had sprung up, following the Wa takeover of Mongjawd, 2 according to Show Business: Rangoon's War on Drugs in Shan State (S.H.A.N., December 2003) and 4 according to the latest information. 

• Sources also pointed out that the drug-free project in Yawngkha had stopped neither poppy cultivation nor heroin-methamphetamine production in the surrounding area. One refinery is located roughly 30 km east of the project in Nampoong and another 25 km west of the project in Punako, both under the Burmese military's protection. Even the projected Doi Tung III in Tangyan is identified by watchers as Wei Hsuehkang's turf. 

• According to Show Business, the opium decrease in northern Shan State was more than offset by the sharp increase in the south and east, where suppressions are nominal and the local military depends heavily on drug production for its subsistence. Latest reports also show that poppy cultivation in the north has also risen significantly during the 2003-2004 season. "Rangoon must have resigned itself to another year of decertification by the United States," commented a Thai drug-watcher in Chiangmai. 
  One indicator was that the US based DCI Associates was paid off by Rangoon early in the year after its failure to change the White House position on Burma's drug efforts. 
  Even Thaksin Shinawatra appears to understand its recalcitrant neighbor, with whom he has continued to maintain normal relations. "When our neighbors are peaceful, narcotic problems are small. Apparently, few illicit drugs come from Cambodia and Laos but a lot from Burma. Peace will lead to the disappearance of drugs," he was quoted by Bangkok Post, 27 January 2003, as saying. 

Thai-Burma relations

In January, Phu Jad Karn "The Manager", reported on the Thaksin administration's Burma strategy, the cardinal aim being "changing enemies into friends". The plan included: To support peace building in the region and To play a leading role in resolving border problems, such as providing suitable livelihoods for people living on both sides of the border. 

On the business front, it would stop asking for concessions. Instead, "we shall propose a joint venture where the profits shall be shared fifty-fifty between us," said Gen Pat Akkaniyabutr, President of the Thai-Myanmar Cultural and Economic Assicoation, that was founded in 2001. 

Upon his return from a 2-day visit to Rangoon on 10 February, Thaksin said Rangoon had agreed to let him help rebels negotiate with the country's military rulers. A plan was then reportedly drafted which recognized that conflict resolution by Rangoon and the non-Burman armed movements would be in the interest of Thailand and accordingly opted for a proactive policy. It proposed that dialogue between the two sides should be conducted simultaneously with that between Rangoon and Aung San Suu Kyi. It also said preventing the opposition from using Thai territory to create violence in Burma did not mean "preventing them from using the territory to work for national reconciliation. "The plan also moved to develop the ethnic areas along the border following achievement of reconciliation. At the same time, it also specifically stated that "Thailand shall not resort to pressure to bring about a structural change. We must determine practical and achievable goals, making sure that they are not at variance with the SPDC…" 

However, the plan was abruptly interrupted by the 30 May massacre in northern Burma followed by Aung San Suu Kyi's custody. But Thaksin was not one to allow the situation to return to normal for long. 

On his next visit to Burma, 10-12 November, he again urged his counterpart Khin Nyunt to include ethnic groups along the Thai border to be part of the talks on his roadmap, announced on 30 August. (The visit, highlighted by the Pagan declaration that put on paper Thaksin's concept: 4 countries, 1 economy, had prompted one prominent Shan to dub him as "the uncrowned king of 4 countries" i.e. Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand.)

The result was the visit by Col San Pwint, Khin Nyunt's trusted deputy to the Karen National Union in November and a call for another group, Karenni National Progress Party, to resume talks. The Shan State Army, however, so far has not been mentioned, although it had agreed to hold talks without pre-conditions. 

All in all, the year 2004 is likely to continue to keep all those who only wish for peace and security for the long-suffering people on their toes. For those who believe in astrology, the Year of the Monkey has already promised a rough year ahead.