Khuensai Jaiyen is editor-in-chief of the Shan Herald Agency for News and an avid student of Shan State affairs. He shed light on current events there in an interview with Maxmilian Wechsler
By: Maxmilian Wechsler
Published: 24/05/2009 at 12:00 AM
Bangkok Post, Newspaper section: Spectrum
Q: How strong is Pau Yu Chang now? Is there anyone who could challenge him?
A: Pau's power is a lot less than he used to wield because of his failing health, but he still reportedly enjoys loyalty from those who matter. The only one who can challenge him is Wei Hseuh-kang, but his morbid fear of the limelight will prevent him from seizing power for himself. He'd rather have a proxy sit on the throne. There may of course be a dark horse. But I admit I don't know.
Q: How should he be viewed in the context of his past drug trafficking?
A: Pau cannot be compared to Khun Sa, who didn't have any neighbouring powers to back him. But Pau has China, and he has many allies. The only thing he lacks is a good political image which, when the time comes, can be spruced up by them.
Q: How would you rank the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in terms of capabilities and fighting skills?
A: One of my friends mentioned that the Wa are strong today not because they are clever, but because Burma's ruling State and Peace Development Council (SPDC) and the Chinese allowed them to become strong. Their main strengths are a territory free of SPDC and the number of arms and men they have. However, I think when it comes to fighting they are less capable than they were 15 years ago. They also need to abandon their outmoded "human wave" tactics that were the main cause of heavy casualties in the past. For instance, the Wa admit they lost more than 700 men during the month-long attack on the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) in 2005, compared to fewer than 50 losses for the SSA-S.
Q: What is the drug situation in Wa state and in the whole of Shan State?
A: There are almost no poppy fields in Wa, but the shortage is being filled by production in the south and east. However, due to adverse weather conditions (heavy rain and frost), output is down in the south, 20% to 50%. In the east, the bad weather did not affect them much. There were also a lot of poppy-destruction operations in the south, but compared to the damage caused by the weather, these had minimal effect, though more than in previous years.
Q: Is any cease-fire or non-cease-fire group now involved in the drug trade in Shan State or other parts of Burma?
A: I'm again quoting and paraphrasing what one Palaung leader said a few years ago: "Everyone who has a gun is involved." Those who have more guns are more involved. In Burma, who has the most guns?
Q: What is the political and economic relationship between the UWSA, the SPDC and China?
A: Relations with China are the reason why the UWSA is maintaining its opium ban. The UWSA knows it can afford a blockage from the SPDC but not from China. Relations with the SPDC continue to be tense. The SPDC bosses were not present on April 17. But both sides are virtually begging each other to be the first to fire a shot, as neither (especially the UWSA) wants to be blamed by China.
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Sam
Discussion 2 : 24/05/2009 at 11:19 PM2
For years the Wa has been fighting other people's war, at their own expense in term of causalities and other resources.
They fought for the Communist Party of Burma in 60s and 70s, and later, for the Burmese junta against the Shan, suffering great human and financial losses.
Imagine, the total Wa population is barely half a million.
The winner coming out of this military engagements isn't the Wa but the Burmese junta. The unsophisticated Wa were promised more territory by the junta and pitched them against the Shan resistance forces. The clear losers were the Shan and the Wa, where the Burmese junta profited by implementing its divide and rule strategy.
It now seems the Wa has learned their lessons the hard way and are now fighting and struggling for themselves and not for fighting other people’s war.
This is the right attitude and hopefully, the Wa people will continue to build coalition with like-minded resistance armies to fight for their own rights of self-determination.
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Shanonymous
Discussion 1 : 24/05/2009 at 06:51 PM1
According to Khuensai Jaiyane, editor-in-chief of the Shan Herald Agency for News, that Burma's ruling State and Peace Development Council (SPDC) and the Chinese allowed the UWSA to become strong.
One wonders, why it should be of interest to the SPDC and Chinese to allow the Wa with a leap and bound growth of its military strength in just merely less than two decades.
The answer lies with the divided and rule strategy, where the SPDC is concerned; and as for the Chinese a need of proxy and as listening post in order to repulse any containment policy of the West, through Thailand and possibly, to keep the unruly Burmese junta in check, showing them when needed not to be too independent in policy formulation without Chinese consent. In other words, to repeatedly remind the junta that Burma is, in fact, some sort of a modern day Chinese tributary state.
One only needs to read the main feature "Wa army flexes its muscles" on how much influence the Chinese have on Wa control territory.
Having said that, the Chinese won't be pulling the rug under Wa's feet any time soon. And the junta can't afford to open up a new war front with the UWSA, without upsetting the Chinese and also without pushing the Kachin and Shan and other cease-fire armies to respond in kind for SPDC’s military adventure.
For the moment, it is uncertain, who will blink first between the SPDC and UWSA.
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