Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N.)

The making public of junta's electoral law, governing 2010 elections,  looks more and more like a circus clown pulling out pigeons and rabbits out of the hat, at unexpected time. It is meant to surprise the people of Burma and international community.

While the intended surprise element is, more or less, losing its lustre, due to the fact that most were able to foresee the junta’s preconceived  ideas,  its other motive is becoming clearer with the start of 2010. And it is none other than its "deception" ploy to hoodwink the international stakeholders and people of Burma to stay ahead of its prescribed election game plan and undercut all other contenders’ ability to compete, in a fair and equal footing, with its political machinery.

Let us take the cue from chief of the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), a proxy of the Burmese junta, who said that the elections will be held in October, most likely on the 10th, when meeting the head of a prominent Japanese charity recently. And taken into account of Thai foreign minister Kasit Piromya's calculation that within another two or three months time the electoral law  should be 100 percent ready, after meeting with Burma’s foreign minister Nyan Win, who said that it is "60 to 70 percent"  finished.

Under such circumstances, all other potential contenders, recognised political parties and yet to be registered ones, haven't even started to meet on how to go about with the forthcoming elections, due to the lack of electoral law and restrictions to gather, hold party meetings or even reopening of party branches nation-wide. This is especially true for the National League for Democracy (NLD) and ethnic parties, which have won a landslide victory in 1990 elections.

But the junta sponsored party, USDA has long been on undeclared election campaign in various guises and now only needs to change its name and jump-start the process, once the electoral law is in place. As one can see, the junta has all the advantages of early start, overflowing election campaign war chest and official backing, while all the others will have to start mostly from a scratch.

There is no denying that the junta's orchestrated, 2010 nation-wide election is the only game in town. It will be scripted according to junta's needs and projected outcome, as has been the case of 2008 constitutional referendum, which have been manipulated and rigged, claiming to be endorsed by more than 90 percent of the population.

If the 2008 constitutional referendum is of any indication on how junta's pushed through its aims and objectives, there no reason to believe that this time around it will be different.

The so-called third force and even NLD moderate wing will not be able to derail the junta's scripted procedure, which boils down to continued power monopoly of the Burma army.

In concrete terms, it would mean allowing some individual parties to run for election, but would obstruct them from winning through manipulation of the process, to limit their success.  In other words, it is just to use them as democratic widow-dressing for multi-party election purpose. Nothing more than this.

As it is, 25 percent of the seats will be reserved for the Burma army and the remaining 75 percent will be contested between National Unity Party (NUP) and USDA – the name might soon be changed in time  to enter election - , which are junta’s proxies; and assorted so-called third force, the NLD and ethnic political parties.

Either way, the junta is prepared not to replay the 1990 election scenario, where the NLD and ethnic parties won a landslide victory.

Still for those, who consider this an opportunity to open Burma's political landscape should try their luck. There is no harm in trying. But if the junta's is to have its way, this 2010 election is only aimed at achieving international legitimacy and not driving to achieve a genuine democratisation process, which the people have been demanding for decades.
 
Meanwhile, the Indonesia's foreign minister said: "For us the main criterion, or the main preoccupation, would be that we have that necessary positive, democratic atmosphere for a credible election to take place,"  after meeting  Burma’s foreign minister Nyan Win at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Vietnam.
"It's best to allow things for such conditions to be established rather than to rush into it and then we have a situation where the ideal condition is not there."
For now, the positive, democratic atmosphere for a credible election is still a distant dream. But the junta is determined as ever to go on with its plan, with or without international backing.
The junta has pulled out 92 percent people’s endorsement out of its magic hat regarding the 2008 constitutional referendum, on the eve of Nargis cyclone devastation in Burma. And no one  should be surprised, if it is going to pull out a landslide win again from its hat for its sponsored party after the forthcoming nation wide elections.



(Sai Wansai is the General Secretary of the exiled Shan Democratic Union - Editor)