China may have been one of the first countries to recognize the military that took power in 1988 and likely the most influential foreign power in Burma, but that does not mean Burma’s generals are off their guards against its giant neighbor, according a top secret defense plan drawn by the Lashio-based Northeastern Region Command.
The 120 page plan was designed in 1997 by Maj Gen Tin Ngwe, then the regional commander, 9 years after the current military junta came into power after a bloody coup.
In the event of war, China will be facing 3 military regional commands: Northern (Myitkyina), Northeastern (Lashio) and Triangle (Kengtung) along the 1,357 miles (2,171 km) front.
The rationale for the blueprint was four-fold:
- Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China has emerged as the only world power that has the capacity to pit its forces against the United States
- China has been making unceasing efforts to become the most powerful country in Asia
- Burma offers an outlet to the Indian Ocean for China’s landlocked southwest
- Burma makes an ideal buffer zone for China in preventing hostile powers from occupying it as a foothold
“China’s strategic needs might lead to occupation of Burma and making the country its satellite state,” it says.
The blueprint also mentioned numerous wars Burma had fought against China in history including the latest one between 1968-1988, using the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) as Chinese proxy.
Naming China as “enemy,” the paper speculates that China will be entering Burma by 3 routes: Myitkyina, Lashio and Kengtung, where the 3 regional commands are based.
The 8 ceasefire groups in these areas, long under economic, political and social influence of China, might choose to become collaborators of the enemy, it warns. “We must (therefore) do our best to win them over using political, military, social and economic means.”
The 8 ceasefire groups mentioned by the plan and their current status are:
Name Status
- Kachin Independence Army No to BGF
- Kachin Defense Army BGF
- Shan State Army “North” No to BGF
- Palaung State Liberation Army surrendered in 2005
- Shan State National Army surrendered in 2005
- Myanmar National DemocraticAlliance Army (Kokang) BGF (one faction)
- United Wa State Army No to BGF
- Mongkoe Defense Army Attacked & dissolved in 2000
BGF or Border Guard Force was the program offered by Naypyitaw in 2009 to the ceasefire groups to enter the fold of the Burma Army under the principle, “One country, one military.”
The Burma Army will be employing the People’s War Strategy "to the fullest” to counter China’s invasion, it says. Apart from regular forces, the paper mentions reserve forces which include police, fire brigades, Red Crosses, Union Solidarity and Development Association (USD) and various people’s militias formed under the aegis of the Burma Army.
The military principles to be employed against China, it says, will be:
- Defensive in strategy and offensive in tactics
- Interior line in strategy and Exterior line in tactics
- Protracted conflict in strategy and brief conflict in tactics
“The blueprint, as the Burmese like to say, is just a case of ‘The sky won’t fall, but what if it does,’” commented an officer in the anti-BGF Shan State Army (SSA) “But it also proves that, despite the outwardly cordial relationship between the two sides, the generals do not trust our big neighbor.”
Naypyitaw currently is calling upon Beijing to wield all of its influence to force the ceasefire groups along the Sino-Burma border into accepting the BGF program. Most of the groups, their autonomy proposals bring turned down by Naypyitaw, are opposing the program.
