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No opium free Burma in 2014 unless…
As the world’s anti-drug day 26 June draws near, Shan Drug Watch, a branch of SHAN, has bad news for Burma’s military rulers: opium output in Shan State is up from last year’s by all accounts, a progress in the opposite direction if their 15 year master plan is taken into account.
Map
23
June 2008
Drugs
The plan’s Phase One (1999-2004) had "prioritized" 22 townships in Shan State.
According to Drug Watch, only 7 townships can be reported as worthy of the
claim, 3 of whom are under ceasefire groups’ administration.
Shan State Township
Free/Not Free
Remark
North
Mongkoe
NF
Kunggyan
F
MNDAA (Kokang)*
Laokai
F
MNDAA (Kokang)
Kunlong
F
Hopang
F
Mongyai
NF
Tangyan
NF
Lashio
NF
Namtu
NF
Mantong
NF
Hsenwi
NF
Kutkhai
NF
Namkham
NF
Muse
F
Panghsai
F
East
Mongla
F
NDAA-ESS**
South
Kunhing
NF
Mongpan
NF
Langkher
NF
Hsihseng
NF
Faikhun(Pekhon) NF
Mongkeung
NF
*MNDAA
=
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army aka Shan State Special Region #1 or
Kokang, led by Peng Jiasheng (Phone Kya Shin).
**NDAA-ESS
=
National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State aka Shan State Special #4
led by Sai Leun aka Lin Mingxian (U Sai Lin)
The ongoing Phase Two (2004-2009) is zeroed in on 20 townships. As can be seen
in the following table, the success story, for which a steep price is still
being paid by the local people, is in the United Wa State Army (UWSA)’s
territory.
State
Township
Free/Not
Free
Remark
Kachin
Karmaing
NF
Waingmaw
NF
Moemauk
NF
Moehnyin
NF
Shan
North
Pangwai
F
UWSA territory
Manphang
F
UWSA territory
Napharn
F
UWSA territory
Mongmai
F
UWSA territory
Pangyang
F
UWSA territory
Wiangkao
F
UWSA territory
Shan
East
Mongyang
NF
Kengtung
NF
Mongyawng
NF
Monghsat
NF
Mongton
NF
Mongpiang
NF
Mongkhark
NF
Shan
South
Hopang
NF
Mongnai
NF
Panglawng
NF
If the two phases can serve as examples, there is not much hope for success for
the 9 townships in the upcoming Phase Three (2009-2014):
Shan State South Kehsi, Monghsu,
Namzang, Yawnghwe and Laikha
Kayah (Karenni) Loikaw and
Dimawso
Chin
Tonzang and Falam
The last (2007-2008) poppy season also saw increased cultivation, up to 40% in
Shan State South and East. However, presumably due to continued pressure from China, the data
collectors saw little increase in Shan State North, except in 3 townships
outside the target areas: Mongmit, Namhsan and Hsipaw.
Kachin News Group (KNG) also reported that poppy cultivation was on the rise in
two more townships: Sumprabum and Putao. "Kachin
State is somewhat outside the focus of
the world," commented a businessman in northern Shan State.
"There are only a few reports on the drug situation coming out of the
state. The authorities there therefore feel more at ease to allow poppy
cultivation compared to their counterparts in Shan State."
Khonumthung, a news group based in India’s
Mizoram also reported cultivation in Tiddim township, Chin State.
The rest of Shan State likewise saw increased cultivation
in at least 6 townships: Lawkzawk, Loilem and Mawkmai in the South and
Markmang, Mongphyak and Tachilek in the East.
"One thing is also significant," said one of the collectors. "In
a number of areas, we saw poppies being grown all year round, 2 crops in some
places and 3 in
others. So as far as farmers there are concerned, the word ‘poppy season’ is
rather meaningless now."
To prove his point, the collector, who naturally wishes to be unidentified, had
given Drug Watch a number of photos taken on 16 April, 2 miles east of the
Loilem-Panglong motor road. The two towns are located six miles from each
other.
Farmers were from the village
of Namhu, made up of
Shans and PaOs. The fields were also said to be close to a Burma Army outpost.
However, due to insufficient rain, the output, in contrast to the input, was
reportedly much lower in several localities except for upland areas. Estimates
of the increase range from 5%-20% compared to last year’s.
UN Office For Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported on 11 October 2007 a 29% increase in the
cultivation and 46% crease in the output last year.
"One good indicator of the upsurge in the input is the growing piles of
dried chicken droppings (used as fertilizers), on the roadside," according
to a data collector. "As for the increase in the output, the pointer is
the decrease in opium prices."
All these does not mean that Rangoon, or rather
Nay Pyi Taw, will not be able to announce an opium free Burma by 2014.
Opium can be allowed to grow until 2013, when draconian measures could be
employed as it did during the 2001-02 season in the North. The only problem is
that such action does not guarantee sustainability.
Which was what happened in Laos, that had "proudly proclaimed itself as
opium free" in 2006, according to British journalist Tom Fawthrop, only to
allow it to stage a comeback the next year. "What is for sure,"
according to one international NGO representative who prefers to remain
anonymous," the programme was focusing on eradication more than finding
alternatives to opium. They pushed for opium elimination before economic
development was in place, so they put the cart before the horse."
With strife-torn Burma,
it would need more than just an economic development. "Any counter
narcotics policy to succeed in Burma
must take into consideration the political side of the problem. Political
solutions have not been properly explored, but this is the only way to get to
the bottom of Burma’s vicious circle linking illicit drugs, insurgencies,
reconciliation and democracy," wrote The Nation on 26 January 2006.
Mr Akira Fujino, UNODC regional representative in Bangkok, asked by
participants in the forum at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT)
on 12 September 2007, also agreed that without peace and national
reconciliation, there was no way to resolve the drug problem in Burma.
SHAN whole heartedly echoes their view.
Shan ceasefire group mum on meeting results
