No.6 - 06/2006

11 June 2006

Politics

East Timor – A failed state scenario?

Crisis in East Timor is a blow to independence movements all over the world, says a Shan veteran activist.

By Shanonymous

Barely after just over four years of achieving independence, this newly independent state bounced back into international limelight with the outburst of armed confrontation between warring groups.

The recent unrest that has ravaged the capital of East Timor in past days stems from a mix of political rivalry, economic stagnation and prejudices festering since Indonesia's hold on the former Portuguese colony.

It all started out when 600 of East Timorese defence force or army were dismissed from the army by Prime Minister Alkatiri's government made common cause with others unhappy with his leadership.

Demonstrations degenerated into riots that pitted soldiers against police, those from the east of the country against those from the west, and supporters of Alkatiri against those seeking his removal.

Discipline within the security apparatus broke down. With law and order gone, mob rule took over. Alkatiri, under pressure from President Xanana Gusmao, called in Australian, Malaysian, New Zealand and Portuguese troops to separate the warring parties and restore order. (DPA - Thursday June 1, 2006)

At least 20 people have been killed in recent weeks in the violence. About 100,000 people have sought refuge at camps in Dili or have fled the city of about 150,000 people, the UN said.

Latest reports indicate that the overall situation is improving. The commander of the joint forces, Brigadier Mick Slater, says there have been no serious incidents in Dili for the past 24 hours. There are now 1,300 Australian, New Zealand, Malaysian and Portuguese troops on the ground in East Timor, mainly patrolling the streets of the capital Dili. Accordingly, with the improvement of the security situation in East Timor could see the start of the withdrawal of international troops by the end of the month. He says while he does not want to be held firmly to a withdrawal timetable, a lot of work has been done to prepare international police officers to take over the work of the multinational defence force. (Radio New Zealand - 10 Jun 2006)

 A Failed State?

Different opinion and assessment have been aired in the medias, if East Timor is on its way to become a failed state.

Matt Robson, Deputy Leader of the Progressive Party, New Zealand, writes in his opinion piece titled “The States That Failed East Timor “ recently as follows.

As East Timor is wracked with crisis and the western media pour into another “failed state” my thoughts turn to the states (and the media) that failed East Timor when Indonesia seized it in 1975 and over a period of almost a quarter of a century of brutal occupation were responsible for the deaths of 200,000 people in a nation of 1 million.

The New Zealand Herald with breathtaking haughtiness described the murderous Indonesian occupation as “several bloody incidents.” In the same dreadful editorial it sneered at Xanana Gusmao as “once a hero of its independence struggle" and mused about “whether we are stepping into a passing storm or the first stage in the failure of a new state”.

How the rich countries and their media which fail to uphold international law and just treatment of the underdeveloped world love to lecture “failed states”. It absolves them of their indifference to the causes of the failure.

Senior Herald journalist John Roughan, who probably wrote the abysmal Herald editorial with its patronising cant, bemoaned how good people like him were tricked into supporting East Timor’s independence when clearly it would have been better if this “two-bit state “had been left in the hands of Indonesia even if that country did hand out “rough justice”. (Scoop - 8 June 2006)

UN hasty withdrawal

Meanwhile, East Timor's slide back into turmoil is raising questions about whether the U.N. is too hasty to retreat from hotspots.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said last week in New York that if there has been a sense, on the part of UN, leaving the conflict areas too soon.

He also pointed out that the UN has been in Cyprus, Bosnia and Kosovo for ages and that it often try to leave other areas after two or three years. (SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER - June 8, 2006)

Somewhat similar to Kofi Annan’s statement, the foreign minister, Jose Ramos-Horta, said on Friday, 9th of June, that the UN should help oversee elections in East Timor and stay involved in the violence-scarred nation for at least a decade, noting that restoring order and building a democracy would take time and money.

Jose Ramos-Horta said it was in no one’s interest to see East Timor – where riots, looting arson and gunfire have engulfed the capital Dili just four years after it won independence – turn into a “failed state”.

“I believe that East Timor, even in light of current events, is still a success story,” Ramos-Horta said.

“The significance of the events of the past month has more to do with the depths of instability from which East Timor has risen, rather than the heights of security it has yet to aspire to.”

“Some of these problems result from inexperience and poor management; others are caused by what many called an arrogant leadership,” Ramos-Horta said.

“I believe that East Timor can recover from this recent turmoil. This process may require a political change, perhaps in the form of a government of national unity. Equally, if not more important, is that the leaders jolted by the crisis reflect with humility on their own failings, and not simply look for scapegoats.” (Ireland On-line  - June 9, 2006)

Australian Factor

East Timor, the world's newest nation, is in danger of becoming a failed state because Australia is dragging its feet on maritime border talks and hindering the development of its neighbour, aid agency Oxfam said on Thursday.

An Oxfam report released to coincide with East Timor's second anniversary of independence showed less than half the nation's 760,000 people could read or write, 41 percent live below the poverty line and one in 10 children die before the age of five.

Australia and East Timor are negotiating a border in the resource-rich Timor Sea. At stake are billions of dollars worth of oil and gas royalties, which East Timor has vowed to use to alleviate poverty, create jobs and improve education.

"Two years after independence, the Australian government's approach to maritime boundary negotiations with East Timor is limiting East Timor's capacity to plan for and finance its future development," Oxfam and Australian arm Community Aid Abroad said.

"This could push newly independent East Timor to the brink of becoming a failed state through no fault of its own," it said. (REUTERS - May 19, 2004)

Indicators

While there is still room for argument on how we could and should assess or pinpoint a failed state, the report compiled by the US Foreign Policy magazine and the US-based Fund for Peace think-tank - ranked nations according to their viability is one of the most comprehensive indicators now available.

The second annual "failed states index" was based on "tens of thousands of articles" from different sources gathered over several months in 2005 and reviewed by experts, its authors said. Each nation was given an overall score based on the 12 criteria:

• mounting demographic pressures

• massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples

• legacy of vengeance - seeking group grievance

• chronic and sustained human flight

• uneven economic development along group lines

• sharp and/or severe economic decline

• criminalisation and delegitimisation of the state

• progressive deterioration of public services

• widespread violation of human rights

• security apparatus as "state within a state"

• rise of factionalised elites

• intervention of other states or external actors

(BBC - May 2, 2006)

While many of the listed points definitely could be identified with East Timor’s recent happening, the major issues seems to be the rift or rise of factionalism among the elites, corruption, unemployment and poverty.

The national leadership is said to be in disarray. Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri is estranged from President Xanana Gusmao and Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta. (The Nation - May 30, 2006)

Meanwhile, the East Timor's Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri is facing more allegations that he hired armed forces to intimidate or kill his political opponents. The claims coincide with earlier allegations the Prime Minister recruited a special security squad to eliminate his political opponents.

Earlier this week, 30 former Falantil independence fighters told ABC TV they were recruited on behalf of the Prime Minister last month.

They say they were given a hit list which included many of the rebel soldiers sacked this year and hostile members of Dr Alkatiri's own party, Fretilin.

On Friday, an opposition politician made similar claims that armed men recruited by the Prime Minister attacked demonstrators planning an anti-government rally.

Dr Alkatiri has vigorously denied the allegations, which are yet to be tested by any independent investigation. East Timor's Foreign Minister, Jose Ramos Horta, has called for an urgent inquiry into the allegations. (Radio New Zealand - 10 Jun 2006)

Future

Whatever the case, the international community can ill-afford to let East Timor failed. Eventually, the leadership and people of East Timor will overcome this mishap either through the formation of national unity government, as suggested by Ramos-Horta, or constructive co-habitation, coupled with longer UN involvement in nation-building process and security arrangement and rule of law.

Further, the resource-rich Timor Sea would bring in billions of dollars worth of oil and gas royalties, which East Timor could use to rebuild the country.

Given this backdrop and fear of East Timor sliding into the category of failed state, many countries, which have wholeheartedly endorsed the new state, now seem to have a second thought about independence movements, the world over.

All in all, it is quite a blow to all independence movement as a whole and only time will tell us, if the trend of carving out new states from existing political entities will continue unabated, come to a standstill or selectively endorse by the movers and shakers of international stakeholders on a case to case basis.