The SSA and The UWSA Are they really

The SSA and The UWSA Are they really "poised for battle"?

There wasn't any noticeable excitement when reports came out about a senior Thai military officer telling the media that the Shans led by Yawdserk and the "Red" Wa were on a collision course, due to the latter's incursion into the former's turf in mid-June. However, when a senior officer from the Shan State Army responded rather belatedly but irritatedly to the reports, questions began to arise whether the issue i.e. how best to deal with the Wa had become too delicate for the SSA to handle.

Looking back, when the Shans, believed to be the strongest among remaining ethnic movements that are still fighting against Rangoon, announced in 1996 their "Six Guiding Principles" that included "Anti-Narcotics," hardly anybody gave them serious attention. "It's plain publicity stuff," a watcher in Thailand told S.H.A.N.. "How can any armed movement survive, let alone get ahead, without (money coming from) drugs to feed, clothe and equip its fighters?"
But when, in 1998, SSA units started attacking drug smugglers and refineries, including one allegedly owned by Lt-Gen Tin Oo, Secretary-2 of the State Peace and Development Council, on 9 March, even some skeptics began taking notes. Probably to quell public doubt as to their income, the SSA chief, Col. Yawdserk, told S.H.A.N. on 13 August 1999, that he had been receiving "foreign support" from an unidentified country.

He also said, during a separate session, that the Was also supported his campaign. To which one Burma watcher observed: "It might be true. After all, Yawdserk is eliminating the Wa's business rivals."

However, the easy ride ended with the entry into its area of operations of the Wa forces under Wei Xuegang, wanted by both Thailand and the United States on drug charges. It stands to reason that the "small-time" drug operators under local Burmese units' protection will now find ways to seek protection from the Was instead. A continued campaign against them, therefore, may amount to bucking a stacked deck. In any case, it will not be a walk in the park anymore.

But suspension of its campaign against drugs might also spell the ending of Thai tolerance for the Shan resistance presence along the Thai border. Altogether, as one obsever put it aptly, it is a situation when neither advance nor retreat is desirable and staying put means the end.

(Could the policy of tolerance towards the SSA in fact be the policy of assistance? Informed sources told S.H.A.N it would take some time and sufficient backing from the "powers-that-be" for Thailand to assist the Shans, who are their historic cousins, because the Burmese have been watching day and night "like a hawk" the relations between the two. "So if there is going to be any significant assistance, it is not going to be cloak-and-dagger stuff but open," said one source. "Remember, Thais are against the Was not only because of drugs, but also because the word Wa stands for Burma and China. Only they cannot afford to speak out openly against either country. The Wa, therefore, has to become Arakanese," alluding to the well-worn Burmese expression, "Because one is afraid of Indians in general (who are dark-skinned), only the Arakanese (who are in general also dark skinned) are called blacks.")
"It is possible that both the Shans and the Was, not out of their own choice, may be forced by the Thais and the Burmese to fight," one highly-seasoned Burma watcher says. "The way out is for them to engage in a dialogue as soon as possible."

Now that reports are rife that both Thailand and China are planning to hold direct talks with the Was, it may also be the right time for the Shan State Army to do the same, if it hasn't already.

S.H.A.N.