Yawdserk: War unlikely between Rangoon and Wa

War

Yawdserk: War unlikely between Rangoon and Wa

Rangoon will keep on crowding, but the ceasefire groups including Wa will keep on dodging, thereby disappointing Burma watchers who are anxiously predicting an imminent showdown between the two sides, said Col Yawdserk, leader of the Shan State Army "South" to S.H.A.N. during an exclusive interview on 30 November. Hawkeye reports:

"The war against Wa may bring hands clapping from the United States and Thailand," said the 47-year old Chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State, the SSA's political arm, in response to S.H.A.N.'s question. "But they must be balanced against other inevitable outcomes like it may inadvertently help to bring together the whole opposition, both armed and unarmed, against the regime. No, I think the odds are more in favor of picking up a fight with non-Wa groups, as most of them, apart from being militarily weaker, cannot expect to count on any foreign country for assistance."

He concluded that, at least in the short run, the Burma Army would choose to go on crowding the Wa and its allies until it could comfortably call for a checkmate.

"On the other hand, in the event that it is opting for a fight, you can bet the generals will certainly not be advertising it as an anti-Wa campaign," he said, "but as War against Drugs to mislead the rest of the world."

Pressed by S.H.A.N. to say what his position would be in case of Rangoon-Panghsang conflict that may possibly bring the former, for the first time since 1988, in favor with Washington, he said, "We will have to bow to the demand on the home front and that is unity. It does not mean we will ally with drug lords but only with our national brethren. The alliance therefore must unequivocally advocate an anti-narcotics policy, among others."

U Aung Myint a.k.a Li Julieh

Conflicting reports, meanwhile, continue to emerge from the Wa areas. While the United Wa State Army's spokesperson U Aung Myint a.k.a Li Julieh was telling the Oslo-based Democratic Voice of Burma the planned demobilization of up to 5,000 Wa troops to ease off the burden of the local populace, 2 December, other Wa sources insisted that the trend is the other way round. "Each division used to have around 3,000 men before October," said a highly-placed source from the border. "But now orders are out that each must expand up to 5,000 and more."

The interview took place after some sympathetic border watchers suggested that all armed ethnic groups join up together for a common political stand. "It may be able to withstand a fight," a veteran watcher of more than 40 years told S.H.A.N.. "It might even prevent a fight."